The Cameron bounce doesn't exist in Scotland in the same way as it appears to in England.
Yesterday the voters went to the polls in the Bearsden South by-election to select a Councillor to replace the Conservative who had resigned.
Bearsden South ward is in the Westminster constituency of East Dunbartonshire where Jo Swinson is the MP.
Cameron's Conservatives threw everything plus the kitchen sink at this by-election and saw this as a way of "getting rid of Swinson" according to one email forwarded to me.
There were four candidates, Ashay Ghai for the Scottish Liberal Democrats, Rachel Higgins for the Conservatives, Fiona McLeod for the SNP and Manjinder Shergill for Labour.
The turnout was 36.22% and the quota was 1891.
The first preference votes cast in stage one were as follows;
Ashay Ghai - Lib Dem - 1110
Rachel Higgins - Con - 1261
Fiona McLeod - SNP - 783
Manjinder Shergill - Lab - 626
The votes in stage two following Labours votes being redistributed were as follows;
Ashay Ghai - Lib Dem - 1381
Rachel Higgins - Con - 1306
Fiona McLeod - SNP - 972
The votes in stage three following the SNPs votes being redistributed were as follows;
Ashay Ghai - Lib Dem - 1770
Rachel Higgins - Con - 1499
Ashay Ghai was elected as the Councillor for Bearsden South gaining the seat from the Conservatives.
So, Gordon Browns government party came a dismal fourth, Alex Salmonds Scottish government party came a bad third and David Cameron loses another Councillor and still has no mandate for government here in Scotland.
A great day for Ashay Ghai, Jo Swinson MP and the Scottish Liberal Democrats.
A bad day for Gordon, Alex and Dave.
Well done Ashay.
Thinking of Charles Kennedy on what would have been his 65th birthday
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3 comments:
I'm not convinced that David Cameron is doing that well in England if you look at the results in Devon and Cornwall, and even in Hythe yesterday.
Oh crikey. Bubbles on suicide watch.
Ancient history now and Jo Swinson held the seat with ease. But it would have been a bit franker of you if you had brought out in your post that the Conservatives did come first on first preferences. In terms of predicting forward to a first-past-the-post Westminster election that fact is not irrelevant. To spin it as you did as an unmitigated triumph for the SLD when more voters chose the Conservatives first than chose the Lib Dems first is just that: spin.
As I say, ancient history now though.
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